Centauri's Thoughts

Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. Preparations are always good, even if in retrospect, they appear as overkill. Better safe than sorry.

We tested the generator, got some gas for it, topped off the cars, checked for candles, (and glowsticks), made sure we had canned foods and clean water.

We were expecting up to hurricane force winds, and given the proximity of peoples trees to the powerlines in our particular neighborhood, we figured some type of power outage would be a given.

Staying up all night was to be a useless endeavor, as our area was to be more affected today, not last night.

The strong winds and rain never really materialized here, nor did we lose power, but we were ready, in the event that it did happen.

This was one of the Biggest on record, a STRONG Category 5 just before it hit with 175 MPH winds.. it lost speed just before landfall, but still came ashore with wind speeds of 140 MPH.


We were studying it on Sunday, while it was gaining strength in the Gulf. The eye was well formed, and slightly larger than Lake Okeechobee (about 30 to 35 miles diameter) and the total width of this storm was 486 miles.
That make this storm something affecting about 230,400 square miles.


The clouds inside this hurricane also reached about 10,000 foot level so the volumetric measure of this is just under half a million cubic miles.


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The Aftermath of the hurricane is proving far worse than the storm, especially in New Orleans. 3 Levees broken and 80% under varying amounts of water, Satellite pictures have been coming in.

I had considered something similar to this after all our hurricanes last year:

Sailors who traditionally dumped barrels of oil into the sea to calm stormy waters may have been on to something, a new study suggests. The old practice reduces wind speeds in tropical hurricanes by damping ocean spray, according to a new mathematical “sandwich model”.


As hurricane winds kick up ocean waves, large water droplets become suspended in the air. This cloud of spray can be treated mathematically as a third fluid sandwiched between the air and sea. “Our calculations show that drops in the spray decrease turbulence and reduce friction, allowing for far greater wind speeds – sometimes eight times as much,” explains researcher Alexandre Chorin at the University of California at Berkeley, US.


He believes the findings shed light on an age-old sea ritual. “Ancient mariners poured oil on troubled waters – hence the expression – but it was never very clear what this accomplished,” says Chorin. Since oil inhibits the formation of drops, Chorin thinks the strategy would have increased the drag in the air and successfully decreased the intensity of the squalls.


Preventing hurricanes


The researchers suggest that, during a tropical storm, aeroplanes could deliver harmless surfactants to the ocean surface – reducing surface tension in water and stopping droplets from forming – perhaps preventing a hurricane developing.

My idea for it was not sea spray, but limiting the amount of 80+ degree water that could continue to feed the storm.


The problem with this is scale. Hurricanes cover a huge expanse of sea.


the full article is here

Well, I see that the summer pattern has started again. Barely has one Tropical depression storm blown onto land, and we have another strengthening behind it.


This is exactly what it was doing last year, one after the other for months. The difference this year is its starting a month earlier.


They predict a busy year, more than last year, and if today is any indicator, yes, it will be QUITE a busy hurricane season.


Even though Cindy was only 4 MPH short of being classified as a hurricane, Dennis is expected to make that status tonight, and then go on to strengthen up to a Category III (115 MPH winds).


The GDFL Model predicts 127 Knot winds in 48 hours.. which is 146 MPH, a strong Cat IV.


What a way to open the season, eh?


The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes.

Tuesday Afternoon:
Much has happened since Friday nights post. I had no way to make updates without power and Internet access til now.

Hurricane Charley hit the coast as a category 4 and hit the Orlando Area as a Category 2 with 105 MPH sustained and 120 MPH gusts. The eye went right over us here, as we had 5 minutes of dead calm between horrendous winds.
On Saturday morning, I went out and took pictures

It was an experience, and actually, I was expecting it to be possibly much worse (having been through 7.0 earthquakes).
People kind of expect a Garden of Eden, then Mother Nature shows the earth not to be like that, and they freak. Its still calmer than open space, or the open seas.

All this makes us appreciate a hot shower, available food and gas, A/C, and the caring nature of other humans in the same prediciment. It reminds me of possibly why Man survived the Ice Age to begin with. when Life is hard, people pool together, the women guard the cave and watch the kids, then men go out and scavange and protect from the outside, but all in all, together, we survive better as a group, than any survive alone.
Even though, through Hurricane Charley, there were Women foraging (at job) and men at home cooking, cleaning, watchng kids, all necessary functions were covered. Food, water, fire, kids, communication, hope.

We made it, as did millions of others, and we shall again, its in our nature.

Well,
here it is Friday early afternoon, and its raised to a Category 3, 70 miles south of Fort Myers. sustained winds now 125 mph. Traffic was a mess already to get home from work today (we worked 8-12).

Winds here in Orlando Metro area vary according to how close a person lives to the northwest or southeast.


Its still strangely calm outside, muggy, still, overcast, almost like the mythical "earthquake weather" in California (there is no such thing).

Landfall is due between 4pm and 7pm anywhere from the Fort Myers - Sarasota Area to Tampa.. another update in a few hours.

Today charley went up to a category 2 Hurricane (Sustained winds 95-110) and since it is currently holding sustained winds at 105, it could quickly become a Category 3.

Looks like it will make landfall at Tampa/St Pete area. 800,000 people told to evacuate (from the Keys to Tampa. One of the Guys I work with went home today to board up his house (he lives over there).

Winds by 10am tomorrow morning are supposed to be 40 mph, and the hurricane doesnt even make landfall until 8pm in Tampa. This will be an interesting Friday the 13th.

More updates tomorrow...

Well, after 3 years living here, I might see the force of a hurricane. Its still near Jamaica, quite a ways away. expected to strenghten as it moves this direction. Supposed to cross over Cuba, then over Key West, and the prediction so far is right over around Ft Myers.
These things can change direction a lot in 2 days, we shall see.
At least, it looks like a smallish hurricane, we shall keep tracking here for a few days.